New Risk Formula

I think the area of uncertainity and ignorance is a critical factor in risk management, and there are a lot of models and approaches to it. For example, utilizing a bayesian approach for likelihood.

I like how you made sure to split lack of knowledge vs lack of care to have knowledge. This is a big point of discussion in risk management fields, I wrote a little about these ideas on my blog:

• https://investigationsquality.com/2019/05/05/risk-management-is-about-reducing-uncertainty/
• https://investigationsquality.com/2020/01/04/probing-unknown-unknowns/

COVID-19 is a great example. A Pandemic was not an unknown-unknown, it was a known-known that shifted into a unknown-known with maybe some aspects of a known-unknown. In short, it is not a black swan (many black swans are not black swans), and some people call it a black elephant, as a pandemic has been the elephant in the room that everyone is trying to ignore for a long time.

I definitely agree that we need to build a better understanding of uncertainity into our frameworks and look forward to continuing this conversation.

 

Thank you Jeremiah Genest, I will read your articles. My formula is based on COVID, but it also works well for many other situations.
Consider a baby left in a closed door car in hot weather for hours. In this scenario, Impact is dead and likelihood is near 100%. Nothing can change the risk Index. in this case risk is not "uncertainty". The parents know this by heart for sure, so the risk importance depends on how high they are careful or careless.
Imagine a car accident with slightly damage. You love your car and want to repair. But insurance company wants to ignore your request. So, they show it as a huge risk that your car is total missed...you will be in danger to drive with... and you will be responsible...,They present a high risk to reduce the effect of their ignorance and then, they take your car for a little amount. In this scenario, if you have enough faith that God has high diligence for you, the risk importance will reduce and something better will come to you, a better new car.
My formula, I believe, works for any scenario.What do you think?

Given Deming's disdain for many senior managers I believe he would also have made ignorance a part of the equation, although he may have used a different term.

Whether willful or accidental we've certainly seen lots of it with the WHO, CDC, and many political leaders relative to COVID.